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+title = "Give me a reference point and I will tell you how bad your incidence is"
+template = "post.html"
+[extra]
+meta_image = "blog/reference-point/covid-map-germany-yellow-red--1200x630.png"
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+
+_a commentary on how one dispute about colors showed deeper problems with Corona
+maps_
+
+<!-- more -->
+
+There was a little argument between two major German news media some days
+ago. It's related to Corona and data visualization and I have a clever answer,
+so hear me out or scroll fast. Still here? All right, let's do this:
+
+The story is that Bild
+[accused](https://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/bilder/corona-karte-tweet-101~_v-videowebl.jpg)
+Tagesschau of showing manipulative maps of Covid incidence in German
+regions. Bild noticed that on one day Tagesschau published a yellow map, but
+months later they published a map with almost the same numbers but this time in
+red.
+
+{{ image(path='blog/reference-point/covid-map-germany-yellow-red.svg', width=600, alt='Illustration of Covid incidence maps of Germany in yellow and red color') }}
+
+Bild concluded that by choosing a scary color, Tagesschau tried to make the
+pandemic look worse (because politics). Tagesschau
+[replied](https://www.tagesschau.de/faktenfinder/tagesschau-corona-karten-101.html)
+that one map version was actually for TV and the other for web and it just got
+mixed up. The story could end here. But there's a deeper problem...
+
+Think: How can we in general tell if a number is small or big or scary or ok?
+It says nothing when a number is presented like "look, here's 1.5". We need a
+reference point such as "here's 1.5 and by the way it was 1000 the whole last
+year". Now we can tell something: 1.5 looks small.
+
+So if a Corona map (like the Tagesschau's) wants to tell something about the
+incidence numbers... where is the reference point? What are we supposed to
+compare the numbers with to understand them? This might seem like a rhetorical
+question suggesting there isn't such point, but no, there is:
+
+The reference point for a number in one region are the numbers in other
+regions. We can compare: Berlin — larger, Flensburg — smaller. Notice that it
+doesn't even matter if the map is yellow, red or say blue, as long as the shades
+differ. So reference problem solved? Not quite.
+
+See, regional differences are not the only thing readers look for in the
+map. They also ask: "How is Germany doing as a whole country?" But in the
+Tagesschau map, a reference point to allow assessing Germany as a whole is
+missing. This is the core of the problem.
+
+{{ image(path='blog/reference-point/covid-map-germany-reference-points.svg', width=600, alt='Illustration of reference points in Covid incidencemaps in Germany') }}
+
+The "how Germany is doing as a whole" information is represented by the average
+color of the map. But what can we compare this color to? 1) Other countries?
+Nope, there's just an ocean of grey. 2) The map from yesterday? Yeah, sure, do
+you remember it?
+
+The only thing we can compare the average color of the map to is a cultural norm
+of which colors are considered good and which bad. But that's terribly vague and
+destined to cause disagreements; exactly like in the Bild x Tagesschau case.
+
+Summary: Tagesschau (and others) show maps that are only good for comparing
+Covid incidence among regions and that fail to tell how the country as a whole
+is doing, because there is no reference point to which we could compare the
+average color; just a vague feeling of which colors are good and which bad.
+
+Ideas for improvement? Glad you asked! 1) Show the neighbouring countries. 2)
+Show a change over time. 3) Cite a source that assesses the numbers (e.g. the
+health ministry, which already says which incidence numbers are good and which
+bad — that's the traffic light system).
+
+Funnily enough, it's Bild who published a
+[map](https://twitter.com/pic/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.twimg.com%2Fmedia%2FEzCWxpbWgAErN2F.jpg)
+that does this better as it seems to use the Corona traffic light colors. Now
+they just need to state explicitly that this is the source of the colors and the
+reference point to which the regional incidence numbers should be compared to.